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It is likely that some portions of both of these visions will indeed become true.It is often missed that the submarine itself has been a projector of forms of air power, and that virtually all major nations have, at one time or another, experimented with "operating aircraft from submarines".Ironically the Navy/mc are in the reverse situation the Japanese were in WWII; they think they should be geared to fight at sea (the Imperial Japanese Navy-IJN or AKA: the Japanese Combined Fleet) and take advanced naval bases against a mythical nation-state foe in lieu of fighting an inland foe, which to do well means no foot-slogging from wheeled trucks.
For that matter, it is not inconceivable that submarines might some day operate specialized piloted craft as well.To better understand the history of submarine aircraft carriers, you have to start with the Japanese who pioneered this form of military power. Navy and marines geared towards fighting a Soviet "blue water" Navy and Army that doesn't exist and doing ego-gratifying WW2 beach assaults to take advance naval base partial re-enactments are not doing much of anything to help win the 4th Generation War against sub-national al Queda terrorists.Japanese geared to fight Soviets on land not Americans at sea, Emily patrol seaplane bomber not mass-produced, submarine aircraft carriers slow development Gibralter, Panama? Some criticize hindsight as "20-20" implying we have no right to learn from history, well we damn well better or we will "BE HISTORY".In a shoreward context it risks attack not only by carrier-borne but also by land-based aircraft, land-based missiles and the submarine itself....The era of the submarine as the predominant weapon of power at sea must therefore be recognized as having begun." --John Keegen Various forecasters and historians have attempted to predict the future of maritime warfare in light of the challenges posed by modern anti-shipping technology and weaponry.
We must remember Japan's mortal enemy, Russia (Soviet Union) did NOT declare war against her until the war was almost over in 1945. Had Pearl Harbor NOT happened in 1941, its likely America would not have joined the war until late 1942 and then against Germany after pushed into it by some incident like U-Boats (German submarines) sinking a surface ship with a lot of Americans killed (like the WWI Luisitania incident).